Asset Performance YTD:
- Crypto has performed the best at 32.2%, while government bonds have seen negative returns at -3.2%.
- Japanese banks are outperforming the Nasdaq.
- Bonds are currently in trend, with yields expected to make significant moves.
- The NYSE is up 2.7% YTD but had a tough year in 2022.
- Global stock performance has been mixed since the last Fed hike.
Market Flows:
- Bonds, especially Treasuries, continue to attract inflows.
- Credit inflows contrast with high-yield bond outflows.
- EM debt has seen consistent outflows.
- US equities experienced their largest weekly outflow since December 2022.
- Europe equities have faced 28 straight weeks of outflows.
BofA Private Clients:
- Private clients are selling stocks but keeping cash and T-bill inflows strong.
- They have been buying value, growth, and Japan ETFs while selling TIPS, financials, and low volatility ETFs.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:
- The indicator dropped slightly due to outflows from emerging market debt and high-yield bonds.
Secular View:
- The 2020s are characterized by shifts towards fiscal excess, labor-focused policies, protectionism, and climate goals, signaling a new era of inflationary market cycles.
- A "permanent portfolio" with 25% each in cash, commodities, bonds, and stocks is proposed to outperform a traditional 60/40 portfolio.
- Real assets are expected to outperform financial assets in a higher inflation and interest rate environment.
Cyclical View:
- The surprise in H1'23 was "no recession," while H2'23 is expected to bring "higher-for-longer" rates and tighter financial conditions.
- The transition from "lower-for-longer" rates to "higher-for-longer" rates may lead to a hard landing and market volatility in H1'24.
- Various economic indicators are showing signs of a potential hard landing.
Investment Strategy:
- The "sell the last rate hike" strategy may work well in an inflationary era.
- Gold is suggested as a hedge against higher yields and a lower US dollar.
- The relationship between bond yields and equity leaders is crucial to watch for market direction.
Monopolistic Bull Market:
- The S&P 500 is up 15% YTD, but much of this gain is concentrated in a few major companies.
- The bull market is largely driven by monopolies and oligopolies, with certain stocks having high P/E ratios.
- The next bull market may start with more affordable stocks.
Tales of the Unexpected:
- Japan's bond yields are expected to trade above China's in 2024.
- Japanese inflation is on the rise, with expectations for 4-4.5% in H1'24.
- BofA economists and strategists anticipate the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to end negative interest rates and yield curve control in Q1'24.